General Election polls – latest: Labour set to win more seats than Blair in 1997, shock YouGov forecast says (2024)

Labour are on course to surpass Tony Blair’s landslide majority in 1997, according to YouGov’s first major poll of the general election campaign.

The pollsters’ MRP forecast, based on data from more than 58,000 people, suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a huge majority of 194, with some 422 seats, while the Conservatives could suffer their biggest loss since 1906, winning just 140 seats.

The poll –which came after Nigel Farage announced his intention to stand as an MP, in a blow to the Tories – also followed Redfield and Wilton’s second nationwide poll, of 10,000 people– which put the Tories on just 20 per cent, 26 points behind Labour.

Another mega-poll published over the weekend had earlier suggested that the Tories could win just 66 seats in parliament.

The result would be a Labour landslide, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party securing 476 MPs – a majority of 302 – once tactical voting has been taken into account.

This blog will keep track of every major poll released between now and the general election, and what it means for the parties.

Key Points

• Labour on course to surpass Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, major YouGov poll finds

• Lib Dems will become second-biggest party in Tory wipeout, Redfield and Wilton poll suggests

• How are Reform UK polling as Farage announces his eighth bid to become MP?

YouGov poll suggests biggest Labour majority since 1924

Monday 3 June 2024 21:09 , Andy Gregory

YouGov’s MRP poll predicts Labour would win a 194-seat majority – which would mark the highest number since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Monday 3 June 2024 20:26 , Andy Gregory

The Lib Dems are on course to win 44 seats, according to YouGov’s new poll – which would be four times as many as in 2019.

YouGov poll in graphs: How many seats could each party win?

Monday 3 June 2024 20:05 , Andy Gregory

Greens to gain a second seat – but no others –under new YouGov projections

Monday 3 June 2024 19:44 , Andy Gregory

The Green Party would gain its second seat in the Commons under YouGov’s new MRP poll projections, seizing Bristol Central while holding Brighton Pavilion.

But the prospects of achieving any further seats remain a distant prospect, with the party a considerable way behind Labour in all of the seats in which it is second place.

Reform not close to winning any of seats in which it is in second place, YouGov poll suggests

Monday 3 June 2024 19:24 , Andy Gregory

While YouGov’s polling was carried out prior to Nigel Farage’s announcement today, in the 27 seats where Reform had polled in second place ahead of the Tories, the party was not close to winning any of them.

Mapped: What would the election results look like under YouGov projections?

Monday 3 June 2024 19:05 , Andy Gregory

Labour leading Tories by 20 per cent, Survation polling suggests

Monday 3 June 2024 18:47 , Andy Gregory

New Survation polling also suggests that Labour has a 20-point lead over the Tories.

The survey of more than 15,000 people, carried out on behalf of the campaign group Best For Britain between 22 and 29 May, suggests that Sir Keir Starmer’s party is leading with 45 per cent of the vote.

January polling suggested Farage would win in Clacton

Monday 3 June 2024 18:13 , Andy Gregory

A Survation poll in January suggested that Nigel Farage standing in Clacton could see Reform surge from third place into pole position, notes commentator Professor Tim Bale.

Without Mr Farage in the picture, the Tories led with 38 to Reform’s 18 points. But with the ex-Ukipper standing in the Essex seat, Reform would secure 37 per cent of the vote, and the Tories just 27, the polling suggested.

As noted by Survation’s researcher Jack Peaco*ck, Clacton has the fourth highest proportion of Leave voters of any constituency (71.8 per cent), and was the only seat in which Ukip won a greater portion of the vote in 2015 than Boston and Skegness.

A total of 250 people in Clacton were polled over the phone on the question of a race without Mr Farage, and 264 were asked about the prospect of a race in which he did stand.

More than 130 seats hang on knife-edge in new YouGov poll

Monday 3 June 2024 17:48 , Andy Gregory

There are 131 seats in which the winning party is projected to have a lead of fewer than five per cent, according to YouGov’s new poll.

Those include Robert Jenrick’s Newark seat, Esther McVey in Tatton, and Karen Bradley in Staffordshire Moorlands.

Grant Shapps hangs up on-air call to Sky News presenter after poll shows he will lose his seat

Monday 3 June 2024 17:39 , Andy Gregory

In an extraordinary moment, defence secretary Grant Shapps has rung Sky News presenter Sam Coates live on-air moments after the broadcaster reported that he was on course to lose his seat under YouGov’s new projections.

Asked whether he had seen the projection, Mr Shapps swifty hung up.

Reform not projected to win any seats (YouGov)

Monday 3 June 2024 17:36 , Alicja Hagopian, Data Correspondent

Right-wing challenger party Reform UK are not projected to win any seats, despite over 300 candidates standing across the UK, according to YouGov’s latest MRP analysis published today.

The party is currently polling at 12 per cent, according to latest Techne polls, but is not on track to win a majority in a single constituency, writes data correspondent Alicja Hagopian.

However, the analysis does not factor in today’s shock announcement from Nigel Farage. The former UKIP head announced he would take over from Richard Tice as leader of Reform UK , and will run as an MP for Clacton, Essex.

Despite YouGov’s projection that the party will win zero seats, Mr Farage remains insistent that Reform will manage to do so, adding:

“I think there’s every chance we’ll get more votes than the Conservative Party. I genuinely do.”

It is not yet clear whether Farage’s return to Reform will make an impact on a constituency level, nor whether it will cause a change in the polls.

For more updates on latest polling, see our collection of polls here.

Labour set to win majority more than twice as large as Boris Johnson’s in 2019

Monday 3 June 2024 17:25 , Andy Gregory

Labour is on course to win a majority of 194 seats, YouGov’s MRP poll suggests – more than double the size of the majority of 80 seats achieved by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Rees-Mogg and Penny Mordaunt to lose seats under YouGov projections

Monday 3 June 2024 17:21 , Andy Gregory

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Conservative leadership hopeful Penny Mordaunt are among several prominent figures who would lose their seats under YouGov’s new projections.

Defence secretary Grant Shapps, justice secretary Alex Chalk, science, innovation and technology secretary Michelle Donelan, and what has been dubbed as the “common sense” minister Esther McVey are also on course to be unseated, the new MRP poll suggests.

Labour set to win twice as many seats in Scotland as SNP, YouGov poll suggests

Monday 3 June 2024 17:07 , Andy Gregory

Labour is set to win twice as many seats in Scotland than the SNP, according to YouGov’s first major poll of the election campaign.

Labour are on course to win 34 seats north of the border and the SNP just 17, in a result that would end the Nationalists’ longstanding hegemony in Scotland.

The Conservatives are projected to take five seats – Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Aberdeenshire North and Moray, East, Dumfries and Galloway Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, Gordon and Buchan – while the Liberal Democrats are set to hold Orkney and Shetland.

Tories to win 140 seats, YouGov poll suggests

Monday 3 June 2024 17:04 , Andy Gregory

Labour are on course to win 422 seats and the Conservatives just 140, according to YouGov’s first MRP poll of the general election campaign.

The polling, which was carried out prior to Nigel Farage’s announcement that he would stand to be an MP in Clacton in a major blow to the Tories, puts the Lib Dems on 48 seats, the SNP on 17, Reform on zero, and the Greens on two.

Breaking: Labour on course to win bigger majority than Blair

Monday 3 June 2024 17:01 , Andy Gregory

Keir Starmer could be set to win a majority of 194 seats – bigger than Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, according to YouGov’s first MRP poll.

The majority would be the largest majority in 100 years, Sky News reports.

Farage says he will stand again to be an MP – after polling suggests Reform boost

Monday 3 June 2024 16:41 , Andy Gregory

In related news as we await YouGov’s MRP poll, Nigel Farage has announced that he will run as an MP in Clacton, Essex, and will step up as leader of Reform UK for the next five years.

The former Ukip leader claims his new party will surpass Ukip’s previous high of 4 million votes at the upcoming election, insisting that in the so-called “red wall”, voters could soon realise that a vote for the Conservatives “is a vote for Labour” as momentum for Reform UK grows.

So how is Reform UK polling currently?

Redfield and Wilton’s second nationwide poll – based on surveys of 10,000 respondents – now has Reform on 14 per cent, slightly below a recent high of 15 but well above its numbers at the start of the year.

Prior to Mr Farage’s punchy announcement, commentator David Henig suggested that such polling indicates Mr Farage could believe he is in with a chance of pulling off a “reverse takeover” of the Tory party, in which a victory at the election would spark a wave of Conservative defections.

‘Tories are facing a catastrophe, a complete wipeout'

Monday 3 June 2024 15:49 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Director of research Philip van Scheltinga said: “After a week and a half of campaigning, the polls have changed, and the Conservatives are no longer facing a big loss on July 4. Instead, they are now facing a catastrophe, a complete wipeout.”

PM’s approval rating drops, poll shows

Monday 3 June 2024 15:30 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

According to the poll, Rishi Sunak’s approval rating is down by 17 per cent.

Labour to take majority, newly published mega-poll shows

Monday 3 June 2024 15:08 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Redfield and Wilton’s survey of 10,000 voters published today sees Labour 26 points ahead of the Tories:

New super poll shows Tories heading for election wipeout - with Lib Dems becoming second biggest party

Monday 3 June 2024 15:03 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

A new super poll has indicated that the Tories are on the cusp of suffering the biggest general election disaster in their history.

Redfield and Wilton’s survey of 10,000 voters published today (3 June) has the Conservatives at just 20 per cent, 26 points behind Labour. It is the second poll in three days predicting disaster for the government.

Director of research Philip van Scheltinga said: “After a week and a half of campaigning, the polls have changed, and the Conservatives are no longer facing a big loss on July 4. Instead, they are now facing a catastrophe, a complete wipeout.”

Our political editor David Maddox has more:

New poll shows Tories heading for election wipeout - with Lib Dems overtaking them

Tories heading for election wipeout as new mega-poll suggests they could win just 66 seats

Monday 3 June 2024 14:24 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

The Conservatives are heading for electoral disaster and could win just 66 seats in parliament, a new mega-poll suggests.

The result would be a Labour landslide, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party securing 476 MPs – a majority of 302 – once tactical voting has been taken into account.

Among the big names who could lose their seats are the deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden, home secretary James Cleverly and defence secretary Grant Shapps.

Read more here:

Tories heading for wipeout as new mega-poll suggests they could win just 66 seats